LOS EVENTOS DE “EL NIÑO” Y SU INFLUENCIA EN LAS LLUVIAS E INUNDACIONES EN TRASLASIERRA

La tabla al final del artículo nos muestra mes por mes los valores de diferencias de presión entre Darwin (Australia) y Tahiti (Polinesia) desde 1980 hasta el 2010. Estos valores sirven para conocer cuando se dan eventos de “El Niño” y  – para no redundar en muchos detalles- diremos en forma simplificada que cuando en un mes el valor es negativo, estamos en un mes “niño” y cuando el mismo es positivo estamos en presencia del fenómeno contrario (Niña).

Por supuesto que cuando mas bajo es el valor negativo (-20, -30, etc) mas fuerte es el episodio de “El Niño”, y también que para que se desarrolle necesita una continuidad de varios meses.

Cuando hay un episodio de “El Niño” siempre se producen abundantes precipitaciones en Argentina y entre otras cosas, se asocia con sequías en Australia, India y  China. Por el contrario cuando el episodio es “Niña” sucede a la inversa y las precipitaciones se dan en Asia y en nuestro país hay sequías de diferente magnitud.

Por supuesto que el clima de nuestra zona no está regulado por estos episodios solamente, y que las lluvias no dependen solo de el, pero se destaca esto, como un elemento que puede tener importancia a la hora de definir o prever la disponibilidad hídrica en Traslasierra.

A modo de ejemplo en la tabla que sigue se han detallado mes por mes desde 1980 los valores  de diferencias de presión y se han marcado en rojo los períodos mas importantes de ocurrencia de “el Niño”.

Entre los episodios mas importantes se cuenta “el Niño” de 1982-1983, que causó importantes inundaciones en el río Paraná y dejó mas de 2000 muertos.

En el lapso 1986-1987 se registra otro episodio y nótese que está remarcado de rojo el mes de enero de 1987. Ese mes desbordó el río Panaholma y el agua entró por la plaza central, sin que afortunadamente hubiera víctimas.

El siguiente episodio es en 1991-1992 y en el mes de enero de ese último año, se produjo la creciente del arroyo Noguinet en San Carlos Minas que dejó como saldo el pueblo destruido y mas de 30 muertos.

A fines de 1992 y hasta octubre de 1993, tenemos otro episodio que culmina un mes antes de que se produzca una de las mayores crecidas del río Mina Clavero y que llevara uno de los puentes principales de la localidad.

Finalmente para nuestro valle en diciembre de 1997 y ante otro episodio de “El Niño” se produjo una importante crecida del Río Jaime que en Salsacate llevó carpas y algún automóvil.  

 

Los estudios realizados por los científicos han concluido en que cuando comienza un episodio del Niño, a los 3 meses se se siente el efecto sobre nuestro país.

Posteriormente se remarca el episodio de 2003, donde se inunda la ciudad de Santa Fe y el de 2009-2010 donde también vuelve a haber una inundación en esa ciudad aunque mucho mas suave que la anterior.

De todo lo expuesto se desprende que la ocurrencia de eventos de “El Niño” tiene una marcada influencia sobre la disponibilidad hídrica en el valle, y  -por otro lado- se puede asociar al peligro de sufrir crecidas violentas y de magnitud en los ríos serranos.

 

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1980

3.2

1.1

-8.5

-12.9

-3.5

-4.7

-1.7

1.4

-5.2

-1.9

-3.4

-0.9

1981

2.7

-3.2

-16.6

-5.5

7.6

11.5

9.4

5.9

7.5

-5.0

2.6

4.7

1982

9.4

0.6

2.4

-3.8

-8.2

-20.1

-19.3

-23.6

-21.4

-20.2

-31.1

-21.3

1983

-30.6

-33.3

-28.0

-17.0

6.0

-3.1

-7.6

0.1

9.9

4.2

-0.7

0.1

1984

1.3

5.8

-5.8

2.0

-0.3

-8.7

2.2

2.7

2.0

-5.0

3.9

-1.4

1985

-3.5

6.7

-2.0

14.4

2.8

-9.6

-2.3

8.5

0.2

-5.6

-1.4

2.1

1986

8.0

-10.7

0.8

1.2

-6.6

10.7

2.2

-7.6

-5.2

6.1

-13.9

-13.6

1987

-6.3

-12.6

-16.6

-24.4

-21.6

-20.1

-18.6

-14.0

-11.2

-5.6

-1.4

-4.5

1988

-1.1

-5.0

2.4

-1.3

10.0

-3.9

11.3

14.9

20.1

14.6

21.0

10.8

1989

13.2

9.1

6.7

21.0

14.7

7.4

9.4

-6.3

5.7

7.3

-2.0

-5.0

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1990

-1.1

-17.3

-8.5

-0.5

13.1

1.0

5.5

-5.0

-7.6

1.8

-5.3

-2.4

1991

5.1

0.6

-10.6

-12.9

-19.3

-5.5

-1.7

-7.6

-16.6

-12.9

-7.3

-16.7

1992

25.4

-9.3

-24.2

-18.7

0.5

-12.8

-6.9

1.4

0.8

-17.2

-7.3

-5.5

1993

-8.2

-7.9

-8.5

-21.1

-8.2

-16.0

-10.8

-14.0

-7.6

-13.5

0.6

1.6

1994

-1.6

0.6

-10.6

-22.8

-13.0

-10.4

-18.0

-17.2

-17.2

-14.1

-7.3

-11.6

1995

-4.0

-2.7

3.5

-16.2

-9.0

-1.5

4.2

0.8

3.2

-1.3

1.3

-5.5

1996

8.4

1.1

6.2

7.8

1.3

13.9

6.8

4.6

6.9

4.2

-0.1

7.2

1997

4.1

13.3

-8.5

-16.2

-22.4

-24.1

-9.5

-19.8

-14.8

-17.8

-15.2

-9.1

1998

-23.5

-19.2

-28.5

-24.4

0.5

9.9

14.6

9.8

11.1

10.9

12.5

13.3

1999

15.6

8.6

8.9

18.5

1.3

1.0

4.8

2.1

-0.4

9.1

13.1

12.8

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2000

5.1

12.9

9.4

16.8

3.6

-5.5

-3.7

5.3

9.9

9.7

22.4

7.7

2001

8.9

11.9

6.7

0.3

-9.0

1.8

-3.0

-8.9

1.4

-1.9

7.2

-9.1

2002

2.7

7.7

-5.2

-3.8

-14.5

-6.3

-7.6

-14.6

-7.6

-7.4

-6.0

-10.6

2003

-2.0

-7.4

-6.8

-5.5

-7.4

-12.0

2.9

-1.8

-2.2

-1.9

-3.4

9.8

2004

-11.6

8.6

0.2

-15.4

13.1

-14.4

-6.9

-7.6

-2.8

-3.7

-9.3

-8.0

2005

1.8

-29.1

0.2

-11.2

-14.5

2.6

0.9

-6.9

3.9

10.9

-2.7

0.6

2006

12.7

0.1

13.8

15.2

-9.8

-5.5

-8.9

-15.9

-5.1

-15.3

-1.4

-3.0

2007

-7.3

-2.7

-1.4

-3.0

-2.7

5.0

-4.3

2.7

1.5

5.4

9.8

14.4

2008

14.1

21.3

12.2

4.5

-4.3

5.0

2.2

9.1

14.1

13.4

17.1

13.3

2009

9.4

14.8

0.2

8.6

-5.1

-2.3

1.6

-5.0

3.9

-14.7

-6.7

-7.0

2010

-10.1

-14.5

-10.6

15.2

10.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Como se puede observar, hay una elevada coincidencia entre la ocurrencia de eventos de «el Niño» y el aumento de las lluvias en el oeste de córdoba. Y esta asociación, está corroborada por la ocurrencia de violentas crecidas en los rios serranos, cuando esta situación se ha dado.

425 comentarios en «LOS EVENTOS DE “EL NIÑO” Y SU INFLUENCIA EN LAS LLUVIAS E INUNDACIONES EN TRASLASIERRA»

  1. que buen resumen de la info, mis felicitaciones la verdad que es muy util todo lo que se transcribe como datos sobre la region y esto hace mas previsible tener certeza del comportamiento del tiempo sobre nuestra zona. mis felicitaciones

  2. Zo lang de publieke opinie in de media geregeerd wordt door vrouwen die zorgen minder belangrijk vinden dan carriere maken is het reuze fijn dat blogs als deze daar een tegenwicht aan kunnen bieden. Lang leve het moer!dfronteWendy Schouten

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